The Egyptian revolution: don’t trust the generals
Posted by John, February 13th, 2011 - under Egypt, Revolution.
What a magnificent victory for the freedom fighters it was driving Mubarak out of office.
The strikes that broke out in the last week were the final decisive action coming on top of 3 weeks of mass demonstrations that forced the tyrant to resign.
But what has replaced him? A council of the Armed Forces,a council of Mubarak cronies.
The head, Hussein Tantawi, is the former Defence Minister and Minister for Defence Procurements. In these roles he was effectively the CEO of the biggest company in Egypt and has a material interest in continuing Mubarakism, even if that has to be without Mubarak.
Since 1952 the military has ruled Egypt. For the last 30 years their agent has been Hosni Mubarak.
His policies enriched the top brass; so much so that some estimates are that the armed forces control up to 40 percent of the Egyptian economy.
An integral part of that political control and economic dominance has been the ‘peace’ treaty with Israel, a treaty imposed on the people of Egypt by US imperialism and its agents in Egyptian society – Hosni Mubarak and the military.
It is no accident that the first act of the coup leaders, the generals, was to affirm the peace with Israel. This gives them credibility with their US masters and guarantees the flow of billions to this corrupt clique in charge of the country.
Mubarak united all sectors of society, all classes, against him, except for the military and some sections of the business class.
The magnificent demonstrations and strikes across the country threatened the rule of this corrupt clique.
When the strikes broke out and it became clear that the military could not guarantee support from its lower order and conscripts, the armed forces moved to derail the revolution.
The generals deposed Mubarak to save his regime, a regime of which it was and is an integral part.
The generals have asked the old Government, installed by Mubarak last week, to stay on. Mubarak’s party appointments dominate the judiciary, the Parliament, the public service. The secret and not so-secret police remain.
Mubarak’s dictatorship remains. The tyrant even waits in the desert, surrounded by loyal troops protecting him.
The one thing that can guarantee the political victory of the freedom fighters is to continue the demonstrations and to expand the strikes.
It appears that will not happen. The liberal bourgeoisie and middle classes are threatened by the mobilisations for economic freedom as much as Mubarak was and his cronies now in power are.
The demonstrations and strikes offered a new Egypt, one where ordinary people ran society for their own benefit. The coup has, the generals hope, stopped that development and restored the old ways – the super rich and corrupt close to Mubarak running society for themselves.
It is not clear whether the military fears the wrath of the people more than it values its own privileged position. Certainly at the moment that may be the case.
But once the revolution demobilises itself, bought off by democratic promises from those close to Mubarak, the generals may feel confident to implement a form of guided democracy which balances their interests and those of the vast majority in some unstable mix of democracy and dictatorship.
The reason is simple. Democracy threatens the privileged position of the generals in Egyptian society and their role in the network of imperialism across the region.
Just as importantly, even if the wiser heads in the military understand that the old ways can no longer continue and that co-opting the movement and introducing some form of bourgeois democracy is the way forward, the new regime and its spawn cannot address the profound economic issues facing most Egyptians.
23 percent of the population live below the poverty line. Another 20 percent or so live just above it.
The economy is built on low wages.
The momentum that began to build in the last week – the intertwining of economic and political demands that workers on strike made - had the potential to raise these issues and solve them through the self-organisation of the working class.
The coup has, for the moment, stopped that.
The Army cannot solve the economic problems. The generals live off the poverty of the population.
That is why the political solution they develop is likely to favour them and their continued position in society. That includes not just poverty and low wages for most Egyptians but the peace treaty with Israel.
While it appears many of the demonstrators have now packed up, it is not clear what is happening with the strikes that began a week ago demanding better wages and expressing support with the political demands of the revolution.
If the strikes continue there is hope for the poor and poorly paid, and ultimately for the Egyptian revolution.
Readers might also like to read the views of Egyptian socialist and blogger 3arabawy. A link to the blog site of the Revolutionary Socialists of Egypt blog is here.
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Time February 13, 2011 at 8:31 pm
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Comment from Calligula
Time February 13, 2011 at 11:23 pm
Ross the pragmatist speaks solid truth.
The entrenched buggers you speak of in Egypt will prevail without affirmative action.
That won’t be available in a few days.
Once the kerfuffle has died down this blog will go off on another tangent and everyone will shrug their shoulders when the inevitable happens.
The inevitable –
People will be betrayed, arrested, disappear – all be forgotten then the show will go on.
Egypt and the rest will bow to the inevitable while we look elsewhere.
Why –
Because we are human, fallible, live in Australia – and because our lot isn’t much different.
We have no charter of rights here so it is pointless demanding liberties elsewhere.
Because it is easier to sweep ‘shit’ happening here into the bin while ‘shit’ happening elsewhere grabs the headlines.
Because we’re ‘resilient’ – or so madame bligh and ms gillard tell us.
Because we’ve lost something we never had.
Because they tell us how to think – and when and so we stupidly accede without question.
Because we’re so comfortable and so damned gullible we’ve forgotten human decency – towards those escaping wars we’ve helped cause and towards our own living in gutters through no fault of their own.
We’re doing that because we cannot see the barbed wire surrounding us yet.
We cannot recall the lessons of history because our youth have not been taught them while our elders are either too bloody comfortable or too damned tired.
Comment from Walter
Time February 14, 2011 at 7:40 am
John, don’t want to sound like “I told you so’, but this ain’t no socialist revolution, it’s now military rule with some vague promise of a new constitution.
The workers will get more of the same and Egypt will have strong military rule in the future. It may well be the most pragmatic solution.
Comment from Ross
Time February 14, 2011 at 5:21 pm
I’m afraid you might be right Walter.It will be worse news for all the planet if Egypt and Saudi Arabia become hostile towards Iran and support it’s invasion by USA/Israel.
The USA could have done a lot of good around the planet after WW2,but the greedy industrial military complex became the driving force for evil.
Comment from Ross
Time February 14, 2011 at 6:38 pm
http://www.desertpeace.wordpress.com/2011/02/12/who-sulieman-really-is-by-one-of -his-victims/
Mamdouh Habib says he was tortured in Egypt by Sulieman with Mossad, and Australian intelligence being present. This is an article by Anthony Lowenstein.
Comment from Ross
Time February 14, 2011 at 6:41 pm
Try again. http://desertpeace.wordpress.com/2011/02/12/who-sulieman-really-is-by-one-of-his-victims/
Comment from Walter
Time February 15, 2011 at 10:02 am
And now the Iranians are surpressing their own people. This isn’t a revolution, it’s the time honoured tradition of Arab fifedoms of the changing of the guard. Out goes one dictator and in comes the military and no doubt, another form of dictatorial rule.
Don’t want to rain on the parade, but there isn’t a socialist alternative in sight in Egypt or any other Arab country.
Comment from John
Time February 15, 2011 at 1:55 pm
Maybe you should read what I wrote Walter. I talk about potentiality, not actuality. I never called it a scoialist revolution. But it still has the potential to develop in that direction. The Tunisian working class begins to move by striking and the dictatorship in Tunisia falls. The Egyptian working class begins to move by striking and the dictator resigns, although all his corrput cronies and the rest of the regime remain. And right now workers are striking across Egypt, demanding better wages. It is a demand the armed forces cannot accede to unless the continued existence of the regime itself is threatened. This has the potential to be the next stage in the revolution Walter. We shall see.
Comment from Calligula
Time February 15, 2011 at 1:59 pm
Aber naturlich Walter –
And Nazis still control Germany – we still have the divine right of kings in England and France and an emperor of China.
Walter should Egypt maybe go back to a pharaoh to satisfy your world view?
No?
The news today is that a remarkably diverse section of Egyptian society is reoccupying the barricades.
Likely most startling for you is that numerous police are there standing beside these ‘protestors’.
What do they have to do to prove to you that they are serious?
Whip out the guillotines?
Maybe this time they are organised and since, as they claim, they’ve had to fend for themselves for so long, they are also self-resourced – in other words organised and equipped well enough to hold out.
All those you dismissively call (but misspell) ‘Arab fiefdoms’, Walt, may be seeing their main chance as your vaunted USofA rapidly loses influence in their region.
Without being eternally stuffed about the sunnier side of their nature might finally have a chance to flourish.
But in any case what the hell is wrong with a Fiefdom – If, by that you mean an administrative entity sharing their fortune with the rest of the population – as opposed to an elite exploiting the rest of the population?
Comment from Walter
Time February 15, 2011 at 2:41 pm
Sorry to John & Calligula – I didn’t mean this as a direct criticism of your position, just my pessimistic view that what may have started out as a workers revolt ends up with more of the same.
As for the USA losing influence, that is history. England and France once ruled the Middle East, then Turkey. Now you say it is American hegemony, and that may be so. Next it will be Chinese money and diplomatic control, or Russia, or one Mid East contry will seize greater influence, like Iran.
My point is that these are countries where notions like democracy and workers control have no historic foundation. Egypt was built by slaves and the worst kind of rulers, even if they were played by Richard Burton and Elizabeth Taylor. Syria has never been ‘free’ in the way we portray one’s rights.
I disagree on the main issue that it is all the big bad US of A and Israel who we should blame for having undue influence – I see this is a cultural issue whereby the Muslim world has always surrundered the rights of workers, unions and the critical mass to rulers, kings, dictators and the like.
John, I hope you are right about ‘potential’ and your last line hits the nail on the head – we need to wait and see what transpires.
Comment from Calligula
Time February 18, 2011 at 7:46 pm
Gee Walter –
If a bloke weakened for a second –
Don’t you hate this e-mail?
So many things we want to say but would take 600 pages to express it satisfactorily.
The Masters in the USA might be losing the plot – but Obama is fighting that back – or doing his damned best against a fair deal of opposition.
So do the American People – by existing.
Amazingly crazy and decent people – most Americanos – especially them pesky confederates.
Trouble is – They aren’t calling the shots; neither really is Obama.
They, traditionally, have been denied collective control – equitable management – of their careers, working conditions – their destiny – as much as any other mob of peasants elsewhere.
I reckon the USofA is as close to rebellion as the Levant has demonstrated lately – except that governance holds them completely in thrall. ( in thrall – mesmerized, terrified of consequences).
I was completely gobsmacked when the USSR folded. Couldn’t BELIEVE it !
It happened and similar stuff is happening in the Levant.
Its called DOMINO and Bob MacNamara might have been right – but for all the wrong reasons.
Comment from Ross
Time February 13, 2011 at 8:23 pm
What the stupid people on this planet do not realise John,is that prosperity for all does not mean a loss of life style for the elites.They will lose power but not creature comforts.There is a higher state of consciousness than pure power lust,but it takes a super human effort to get there.Most are just too lazy.
When our economies rid themslves of this imposed boom and bust cycle,small/medium businesses can plan for the future and thus provide real productivity.
Where are the efficiencies in our economies with poor transport, over valued housing,no infrastructure,corruption of Govts,selling off of public assets, unnecessary debt etc.
We are in a state of total dysfunctionality and this is why our leaders are so impotent and constantly mouth platitudes and excuses to garner support.
There is a much better way that will only be achieved by true democracy and freedom.